TACOBOT PROJECTIONS
Week 7: Top 5 Fantasy Defenses
These five NFL team defenses lead TacoBot's published fantasy DST projections for this week.
Scoring: ppr · rules: 1809975c8173566810095d58b49571eb803728b4bd7d88b8ad30e4d0adcd29ce.
These rankings come from TacoBot's weekly projections. Floor and ceiling are P10 and P90 (see distributions).
Published after the first kickoff using inputs frozen at 2026-10-22T18:50:07.491632+00:00. These are frozen-input projections, not live updates. Edition prepared: 2026-10-23T13:29:37.710665+00:00.
Top 5 Fantasy Defenses
#1 DST
HOU Defense
HOU • vs NYG
9.2Mean Fantasy Points
Highest meanHighest ceilingHighest floorHighest top-5 probability- Mean Fantasy Points
- 9.2
- 80% Range
- 3.0–16.0
- Floor
- 3.0
- Ceiling
- 16.0
- Volatility
- 5.3
- Expected Sacks
- 2.7
- Expected Interceptions
- 1.2
- Expected Fumble Recoveries
- 0.3
- Expected Points Allowed
- 14.4
- Defensive TD Probability
- 12%
- Top-5 Probability
- 34%
The simulated 80% range is 3.0–16.0 fantasy points. Top-five DST finish probability: 34%.
● P10: 3.0● Median: 9.0● Mean Fantasy Points: 9.2● P90: 16.0 #2 DST
TEN Defense
TEN • vs CLE
8.8Mean Fantasy Points
Highest ceilingHighest floor- Mean Fantasy Points
- 8.8
- 80% Range
- 3.0–16.0
- Floor
- 3.0
- Ceiling
- 16.0
- Volatility
- 5.1
- Expected Sacks
- 3.4
- Expected Interceptions
- 0.8
- Expected Fumble Recoveries
- 0.3
- Expected Points Allowed
- 15.2
- Defensive TD Probability
- 11%
- Top-5 Probability
- 31%
The simulated 80% range is 3.0–16.0 fantasy points. Top-five DST finish probability: 31%.
● P10: 3.0● Median: 8.0● Mean Fantasy Points: 8.8● P90: 16.0 #3 DST
NYJ Defense
NYJ • vs MIA
8.7Mean Fantasy Points
Highest ceilingHighest floor- Mean Fantasy Points
- 8.7
- 80% Range
- 3.0–16.0
- Floor
- 3.0
- Ceiling
- 16.0
- Volatility
- 5.1
- Expected Sacks
- 3.6
- Expected Interceptions
- 0.7
- Expected Fumble Recoveries
- 0.3
- Expected Points Allowed
- 16.1
- Defensive TD Probability
- 11%
- Top-5 Probability
- 30%
The simulated 80% range is 3.0–16.0 fantasy points. Top-five DST finish probability: 30%.
● P10: 3.0● Median: 8.0● Mean Fantasy Points: 8.7● P90: 16.0 #4 DST
CAR Defense
CAR • vs TB
8.3Mean Fantasy Points
Highest ceilingMost volatile- Mean Fantasy Points
- 8.3
- 80% Range
- 2.0–16.0
- Floor
- 2.0
- Ceiling
- 16.0
- Volatility
- 5.4
- Expected Sacks
- 2.6
- Expected Interceptions
- 1.1
- Expected Fumble Recoveries
- 0.3
- Expected Points Allowed
- 16.7
- Defensive TD Probability
- 12%
- Top-5 Probability
- 29%
The simulated 80% range is 2.0–16.0 fantasy points. Top-five DST finish probability: 29%.
● P10: 2.0● Median: 8.0● Mean Fantasy Points: 8.3● P90: 16.0 #5 DST
CLE Defense
CLE • vs TEN
7.8Mean Fantasy Points
Most stable- Mean Fantasy Points
- 7.8
- 80% Range
- 2.0–14.0
- Floor
- 2.0
- Ceiling
- 14.0
- Volatility
- 4.8
- Expected Sacks
- 2.8
- Expected Interceptions
- 0.5
- Expected Fumble Recoveries
- 0.3
- Expected Points Allowed
- 14.7
- Defensive TD Probability
- 8%
- Top-5 Probability
- 24%
The simulated 80% range is 2.0–14.0 fantasy points. Top-five DST finish probability: 24%.
● P10: 2.0● Median: 7.0● Mean Fantasy Points: 7.8● P90: 14.0
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