Weekly projections

TacoBot Projections

Weekly player projections from TacoBot. See how we did last week.

2026 leaderboard

Forecast cutoff: Oct 13, 2026, 8:40 AM EDT.

Latest TacoBot Projections rankings
Rank	Player	Mean Fantasy Points	Floor	Ceiling	Volatility	Expected Carries	Expected Targets
1	Bijan RobinsonATL · RB	17.39	7.10	29.30	8.77	16.53	3.85
2	Christian McCaffreySF · RB	16.20	6.10	27.90	8.61	13.38	3.62
3	Derrick HenryBAL · RB	13.47	5.10	23.50	7.40	18.56	1.39
4	Jonathan TaylorIND · RB	13.30	4.90	23.41	7.46	14.64	2.55
5	Puka NacuaLA · WR	12.98	3.80	24.00	8.08	0.54	6.39
6	Kyren WilliamsLA · RB	12.64	4.50	22.40	7.17	12.09	3.24
7	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB	12.13	4.30	21.50	6.93	12.00	3.18
8	Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB	12.09	4.30	21.50	7.00	11.12	3.39
9	D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB	11.69	4.30	20.70	6.74	13.77	2.35
10	Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB	10.76	3.60	19.60	6.47	11.97	2.57
11	Drake LondonATL · WR	10.70	2.30	21.10	7.48	0.19	6.23
12	Ashton JeantyLV · RB	10.54	3.50	19.20	6.39	9.15	4.08
13	James CookBUF · RB	10.50	3.40	19.30	6.53	11.31	2.02
14	George PickensDAL · WR	10.42	2.10	20.60	7.48	0.05	5.76
15	Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB	10.34	3.10	19.40	6.62	9.30	2.99
16	Mike EvansSF · WR	10.27	1.80	20.90	7.78	0.06	5.22
17	Brock BowersLV · TE	10.15	2.80	19.20	6.60	0.05	6.13
18	Christian WatsonGB · WR	10.09	1.70	20.80	7.82	0.10	5.37
19	Chris OlaveNO · WR	10.08	2.30	19.60	6.94	0.08	6.05
20	Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR	9.97	2.60	19.00	6.61	0.08	6.82
21	Bucky IrvingTB · RB	9.93	3.30	18.40	6.19	9.60	2.73
22	Davante AdamsLA · WR	9.85	1.90	19.80	7.16	0.05	5.71
23	Alvin KamaraNO · RB	9.80	2.90	18.50	6.30	10.55	2.44
24	Trey McBrideARI · TE	9.75	2.80	18.20	6.25	0.01	6.25
25	DK MetcalfPIT · WR	9.53	1.90	19.00	6.96	0.21	5.98
26	Nico CollinsHOU · WR	9.38	1.60	19.40	7.24	0.17	5.05
27	George KittleSF · TE	9.36	1.60	19.60	7.48	0.02	4.08
28	Luther Burden IIICHI · WR	9.01	1.90	17.90	6.42	1.05	4.96
29	Michael WilsonARI · WR	8.96	1.90	17.60	6.30	0.05	6.10
30	Khalil ShakirBUF · WR	8.76	1.70	17.80	6.53	0.05	4.77
31	Omarion HamptonLAC · RB	8.75	2.50	16.80	5.88	8.58	2.49
32	RJ HarveyDEN · RB	8.69	2.40	16.80	5.85	6.39	3.23
33	J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB	8.68	2.70	16.40	5.70	10.77	1.34
34	Matthew GoldenGB · WR	8.54	1.40	17.90	6.79	0.28	4.93
35	Zay FlowersBAL · WR	8.51	1.90	16.60	5.91	0.44	5.06
36	Malik NabersNYG · WR	8.49	1.80	16.70	5.97	0.04	6.24
37	Parker WashingtonJAX · WR	8.47	1.60	17.40	6.45	0.24	5.05
38	Travis KelceKC · TE	8.33	1.60	17.00	6.27	0.02	4.94
39	Romeo DoubsNE · WR	8.30	1.40	17.50	6.65	0.05	4.73
40	Tucker KraftGB · TE	8.28	1.30	17.30	6.67	0.24	4.21
41	Chuba HubbardCAR · RB	8.22	2.70	15.40	5.28	11.27	1.96
42	Keenan AllenIND · WR	8.16	1.60	16.40	6.00	0.05	5.27
43	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR	8.15	0.00	19.80	8.25	0.14	4.36
44	Rashee RiceKC · WR	7.99	0.00	19.20	8.06	0.12	4.33
45	Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR	7.93	1.60	15.80	5.79	0.06	5.83
46	Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB	7.84	2.10	15.50	5.56	9.72	1.43
47	Xavier WorthyKC · WR	7.82	1.40	16.20	6.11	0.28	5.15
48	Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB	7.77	2.00	15.40	5.57	9.32	1.47
49	Tyler WarrenIND · TE	7.74	1.60	15.80	5.85	0.30	4.73
50	Braelon AllenNYJ · RB	7.73	2.20	15.10	5.36	10.08	1.92
51	Woody MarksHOU · RB	7.59	1.90	15.10	5.47	9.02	1.85
52	Emeka EgbukaTB · WR	7.59	1.40	15.50	5.83	0.18	5.33
53	Josh DownsIND · WR	7.46	1.30	15.60	5.87	0.12	4.70
54	Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR	7.46	1.40	15.30	5.73	0.22	4.40
55	Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR	7.45	1.30	15.70	5.95	0.29	4.31
56	Jaydon BluePHI · RB	7.35	1.90	14.80	5.41	10.44	0.90
57	Germie BernardPIT · WR	7.35	1.10	15.50	6.02	0.25	4.56
58	Tre TuckerLV · WR	7.23	1.20	15.20	5.80	0.35	4.60
59	Devaughn VeleNO · WR	7.19	1.10	15.40	5.92	0.06	4.25
60	CeeDee LambDAL · WR	7.18	0.00	17.70	7.51	0.14	3.87
61	Denzel BostonCLE · WR	7.10	0.80	15.20	5.87	0.09	4.86
62	Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB	7.09	2.00	13.90	4.96	9.17	1.80
63	Dallas GoedertPHI · TE	7.08	1.10	15.00	5.76	0.01	3.87
64	Kenny GainwellTB · RB	7.08	1.60	14.10	5.14	3.71	3.40
65	Hunter HenryNE · TE	7.01	0.00	15.10	6.03	0.01	3.87
66	Rome OdunzeCHI · WR	6.99	1.20	14.70	5.65	0.06	5.21
67	Keon ColemanBUF · WR	6.90	0.00	15.20	6.06	0.05	4.04
68	Brian RobinsonATL · RB	6.89	1.50	14.20	5.38	8.22	1.08
69	MarShawn LloydGB · RB	6.87	1.30	14.30	5.39	6.86	2.13
70	Courtland SuttonDEN · WR	6.85	0.00	14.70	5.78	0.05	4.50
71	Terry McLaurinWAS · WR	6.84	0.40	14.60	5.67	0.04	4.33
72	Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR	6.82	0.10	14.60	5.82	0.07	4.02
73	Blake CorumLA · RB	6.81	1.70	13.70	5.08	7.97	1.17
74	Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE	6.79	1.10	14.50	5.64	0.26	3.98
75	Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR	6.63	0.50	14.30	5.55	0.22	4.00
76	Keaton MitchellLAC · RB	6.57	1.40	13.50	5.02	4.42	2.48
77	Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE	6.56	1.10	13.80	5.26	0.00	4.46
78	Dontayvion WicksPHI · WR	6.52	0.00	14.40	5.70	0.12	4.01
79	Jawhar JordanHOU · RB	6.50	1.40	13.50	5.06	7.41	1.35
80	DeMario DouglasNE · WR	6.47	0.00	14.10	5.62	0.16	3.68
81	Theo Wease Jr.LAC · WR	6.46	0.00	14.50	5.88	0.06	3.85
82	Tony PollardTEN · RB	6.45	1.70	12.80	4.71	7.60	1.68
83	Brandon SmithPIT · WR	6.44	0.00	14.20	5.65	0.15	3.99
84	Cooper KuppSEA · WR	6.42	0.00	14.30	5.73	0.04	3.62
85	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR	6.38	1.40	12.90	4.77	0.14	4.80
86	Kendre MillerNO · RB	6.37	1.40	13.10	4.95	8.59	1.10
87	Colston LovelandCHI · TE	6.32	1.10	13.40	5.20	0.04	4.19
88	Makai LemonPHI · WR	6.30	0.00	13.80	5.44	0.24	3.85
89	Skyler BellBUF · WR	6.26	0.00	14.00	5.61	0.13	3.73
90	Brenton StrangeJAX · TE	6.25	0.00	13.51	5.35	0.01	3.68
91	Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR	6.24	0.00	14.00	5.68	0.40	3.58
92	Oronde Gadsden IILAC · TE	6.22	0.00	14.00	5.56	0.07	3.64
93	Cade OttonTB · TE	6.18	1.00	13.10	5.07	0.01	4.10
94	Juwan JohnsonNO · TE	6.12	0.00	13.50	5.30	0.01	3.66
95	Cam SkatteboNYG · RB	6.07	1.30	12.60	4.75	6.32	2.11
96	Jerry JeudyCLE · WR	6.00	0.00	13.10	5.14	0.12	4.32
97	AJ BarnerSEA · TE	5.98	0.00	13.40	5.39	0.17	3.51
98	Austin EkelerWAS · RB	5.96	1.10	12.70	4.86	4.60	2.21
99	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE	5.94	0.90	12.60	4.81	0.18	4.37
100	Carnell TateTEN · WR	5.94	0.20	12.60	4.90	0.04	4.43

How to read TacoBot Projections

TacoBot simulates connected football games at least 10,000 times and summarizes each player's actual simulated outcomes.
Fantasy scores are not assumed to follow a bell curve.
Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles, not guaranteed low and high scores.
Volatility is the standard deviation of those simulated fantasy points.
Expected carries, targets and QB pass attempts show the workload behind a projection.

See how we have done previous weeks.

Data as of October 13, 2026. Source: TacoBot Monte Carlo · nflverse observed data.