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TacoBot Projections

Where TacoBot Was Right & Wrong — Week 5

How TacoBot's projections fared against actual results.

October 13, 2026Final recap · Week 5

What changed from the prior period

Javonte Williams made the largest rank gain, moving up 19 spots.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had the largest rank drop, moving down 1 spots.

Where TacoBot Nailed It

  • RB

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    DET · vs ARI · PPR

    Projected FP
    21.1

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    32.9

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    37.7

    Final score

    RankRB1RB1
    Exact rank · +16.6 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected21.1xFP32.9Actual37.7
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 9.5–34.0 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    19.9
    Top-5 chance
    58%
    Actual opportunities
    31
    Jahmyr Gibbs workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries18.525.0
    Targets4.36.0

    The rank call landed, while the point estimate was off and the result exceeded the published P10–P90 range.

    +4.8 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • QB

    Josh Allen

    BUF · vs LA · PPR

    Projected FP
    18.0

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    21.8

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    30.5

    Final score

    RankQB2QB3
    1 spot off · +12.5 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected18.0xFP21.8Actual30.5
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 8.4–28.1 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    17.8
    Top-5 chance
    30%
    Actual opportunities
    29
    Josh Allen workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts31.119.0
    Carries4.510.0

    The rank call landed, while the point estimate was off and the result exceeded the published P10–P90 range.

    +8.7 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • QB

    Jacoby Brissett

    ARI · vs DET · PPR

    Projected FP
    16.1

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    27.8

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    25.3

    Final score

    RankQB4QB7
    3 spots off · +9.2 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected16.1xFP27.8Actual25.3
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 6.9–25.6 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    15.7
    Top-5 chance
    22%
    Actual opportunities
    49
    Jacoby Brissett workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts32.747.0
    Carries2.32.0
    Targets0.01.0

    A surprising score, but still inside TacoBot's published P10–P90 range.

    -2.5 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Right Process, Wrong Result

  • WR

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba

    SEA · vs SF · PPR

    Projected FP
    12.9

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    12.7

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    22.8

    Final score

    RankWR3WR8
    5 spots off · +9.9 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected12.9xFP12.7Actual22.8
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 4.0–23.3 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    11.6
    Top-5 chance
    18%
    Actual opportunities
    9
    Jaxon Smith-Njigba workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries0.21.0
    Targets7.48.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    +10.1 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • QB

    Cam Ward

    TEN · vs HOU · PPR

    Projected FP
    11.4

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    14.3

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    5.0

    Final score

    RankQB23QB28
    5 spots off · -6.4 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected11.4xFP14.3Actual5.0
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 4.6–19.3 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    10.9
    Top-5 chance
    5%
    Actual opportunities
    37
    Cam Ward workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts30.836.0
    Carries2.71.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    -9.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • RB

    Chase Brown

    CIN · vs MIA · PPR

    Projected FP
    14.1

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    15.9

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    7.0

    Final score

    RankRB4RB35
    31 spots off · -7.1 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected14.1xFP15.9Actual7.0
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 5.5–24.4 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    12.9
    Top-5 chance
    26%
    Actual opportunities
    17
    Chase Brown workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries12.313.0
    Targets4.24.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    -8.9 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Where TacoBot Actually Missed

  • WR

    Puka Nacua

    LA · vs BUF · PPR

    Projected FP
    11.5

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    43.4

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    37.7

    Final score

    RankWR4WR1
    3 spots off · +26.2 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected11.5xFP43.4Actual37.7
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 3.2–21.6 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    10.2
    Top-5 chance
    14%
    Actual opportunities
    26
    Puka Nacua workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries0.52.0
    Targets6.024.0

    The targets forecast was 6.0 versus 24.0 actual.

    -5.7 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • WR

    Malik Nabers

    NYG · vs WAS · PPR

    Projected FP
    7.8

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    38.4

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    29.1

    Final score

    RankWR27WR4
    23 spots off · +21.3 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected7.8xFP38.4Actual29.1
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.4–16.1 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    6.4
    Top-5 chance
    5%
    Actual opportunities
    20
    Malik Nabers workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Targets5.220.0

    The targets forecast was 5.2 versus 20.0 actual.

    -9.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • QB

    Jameis Winston

    NYG · vs WAS · PPR

    Projected FP
    12.5

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    30.5

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    25.7

    Final score

    RankQB22QB6
    16 spots off · +13.2 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected12.5xFP30.5Actual25.7
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 4.0–21.6 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    12.0
    Top-5 chance
    10%
    Actual opportunities
    58
    Jameis Winston workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts31.854.0
    Carries2.05.0

    The attempts forecast was 31.8 versus 54.0 actual.

    -4.8 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Is TacoBot Getting Better?

Finalized PPR results only. Point and rank MAE are better when lower; Spearman and P10–P90 coverage are better when higher. A dash means that week has no published final grade.

MetricW1W2W3W4W5Season
Point MAE——2.82.72.72.8
Rank MAE——33.233.234.633.7
Spearman——0.720.720.670.71
P10–P90——86%87%85%86%

Season values pool all graded player weeks. P10–P90 is the share of actual scores inside the model's published 80% interval. MAE is the average miss in points or rank spots. Spearman shows how closely the predicted player order matched the real one (1 is perfect).

How this ranking works

How to read TacoBot Projections

  • TacoBot simulates connected football games at least 10,000 times and summarizes each player's actual simulated outcomes.
  • Fantasy scores are not assumed to follow a bell curve.
  • Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles, not guaranteed low and high scores.
  • Volatility is the standard deviation of those simulated fantasy points.
  • Expected carries, targets and QB pass attempts show the workload behind a projection.

Data as of October 13, 2026. Source: TacoBot Monte Carlo · nflverse observed data.

View TacoBot Projections rankings