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TacoBot Projections

Where TacoBot Was Right & Wrong — Week 4

How TacoBot's projections fared against actual results.

October 6, 2026Final recap · Week 4

What changed from the prior period

Tee Higgins made the largest rank gain, moving up 24 spots.

Jonathan Taylor had the largest rank drop, moving down 3 spots.

Where TacoBot Nailed It

  • RB

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    DET · vs CAR · PPR

    Projected FP
    18.2

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    21.2

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    17.7

    Final score

    RankRB1RB17
    16 spots off · -0.5 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected18.2xFP21.2Actual17.7
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 8.1–30.0 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    16.9
    Top-5 chance
    50%
    Actual opportunities
    22
    Jahmyr Gibbs workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries17.015.0
    Targets4.47.0

    The point estimate was close even though the rank was off.

    -3.5 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • RB

    Christian McCaffrey

    SF · vs DEN · PPR

    Projected FP
    14.9

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    23.2

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    16.0

    Final score

    RankRB3RB20
    17 spots off · +1.1 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected14.9xFP23.2Actual16.0
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 5.6–25.9 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    13.5
    Top-5 chance
    35%
    Actual opportunities
    20
    Christian McCaffrey workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries11.015.0
    Targets4.75.0

    The point estimate was close even though the rank was off.

    -7.2 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • QB

    Jared Goff

    DET · vs CAR · PPR

    Projected FP
    14.0

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    24.8

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    20.5

    Final score

    RankQB1QB7
    6 spots off · +6.5 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected14.0xFP24.8Actual20.5
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 0.0–25.3 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    14.8
    Top-5 chance
    23%
    Actual opportunities
    51
    Jared Goff workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts27.352.0
    Carries2.30.0

    A surprising score, but still inside TacoBot's published P10–P90 range.

    -4.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Right Process, Wrong Result

  • TE

    George Kittle

    SF · vs DEN · PPR

    Projected FP
    10.4

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    9.2

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    17.0

    Final score

    RankTE2TE4
    2 spots off · +6.6 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected10.4xFP9.2Actual17.0
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.9–21.0 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    9.0
    Top-5 chance
    31%
    Actual opportunities
    6
    George Kittle workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Targets4.96.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    +7.8 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • WR

    Courtland Sutton

    DEN · vs SF · PPR

    Projected FP
    7.0

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    8.8

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    1.4

    Final score

    RankWR42WR104
    62 spots off · -5.6 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected7.0xFP8.8Actual1.4
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.2–14.8 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    5.7
    Top-5 chance
    3%
    Actual opportunities
    6
    Courtland Sutton workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Targets4.86.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    -7.4 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • QB

    Lamar Jackson

    BAL · vs TEN · PPR

    Projected FP
    11.1

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    12.6

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    18.9

    Final score

    RankQB11QB9
    2 spots off · +7.7 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected11.1xFP12.6Actual18.9
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 0.0–24.5 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    11.4
    Top-5 chance
    18%
    Actual opportunities
    22
    Lamar Jackson workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts18.820.0
    Carries3.22.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    +6.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Where TacoBot Actually Missed

  • WR

    CeeDee Lamb

    DAL · vs HOU · PPR

    Projected FP
    11.1

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    35.6

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    41.3

    Final score

    RankWR6WR2
    4 spots off · +30.2 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected11.1xFP35.6Actual41.3
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 2.8–21.3 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    9.7
    Top-5 chance
    13%
    Actual opportunities
    22
    CeeDee Lamb workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries0.21.0
    Targets6.421.0

    The targets forecast was 6.4 versus 21.0 actual.

    +5.7 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • RB

    Kyren Williams

    LA · vs PHI · PPR

    Projected FP
    9.3

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    31.4

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    36.7

    Final score

    RankRB13RB1
    12 spots off · +27.4 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected9.3xFP31.4Actual36.7
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 3.1–17.3 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    8.1
    Top-5 chance
    11%
    Actual opportunities
    29
    Kyren Williams workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries10.316.0
    Targets2.713.0

    The carries forecast was 10.3 versus 16.0 actual.

    +5.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • RB

    Kyle Monangai

    CHI · vs NYJ · PPR

    Projected FP
    6.6

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    28.3

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    28.0

    Final score

    RankRB30RB4
    26 spots off · +21.4 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected6.6xFP28.3Actual28.0
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.8–13.0 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    5.4
    Top-5 chance
    4%
    Actual opportunities
    31
    Kyle Monangai workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries7.630.0
    Targets1.81.0

    The carries forecast was 7.6 versus 30.0 actual.

    -0.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Is TacoBot Getting Better?

Finalized PPR results only. Point and rank MAE are better when lower; Spearman and P10–P90 coverage are better when higher. A dash means that week has no published final grade.

MetricW1W2W3W4Season
Point MAE——2.82.72.8
Rank MAE——33.233.233.2
Spearman——0.720.720.72
P10–P90——86%87%86%

Season values pool all graded player weeks. P10–P90 is the share of actual scores inside the model's published 80% interval. MAE is the average miss in points or rank spots. Spearman shows how closely the predicted player order matched the real one (1 is perfect).

How this ranking works

How to read TacoBot Projections

  • TacoBot simulates connected football games at least 10,000 times and summarizes each player's actual simulated outcomes.
  • Fantasy scores are not assumed to follow a bell curve.
  • Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles, not guaranteed low and high scores.
  • Volatility is the standard deviation of those simulated fantasy points.
  • Expected carries, targets and QB pass attempts show the workload behind a projection.

Data as of October 6, 2026. Source: TacoBot Monte Carlo · nflverse observed data.

View TacoBot Projections rankings