TacoBot Projections
Where TacoBot Was Right & Wrong — Week 3
How TacoBot's projections fared against actual results.
Where TacoBot Nailed It
- QB
Josh Allen
BUF · vs LAC · PPR
- Projected FP
- 18.9
- TacoBot xFP
- 21.7
- Actual FP
- 17.5
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankQB1QB1918 spots off · -1.5 FP vs projectionMore DetailsInside 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 8.6–29.9 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 18.6
- Top-5 chance
- 38%
- Actual opportunities
- 34
Josh Allen workload comparison Workload Projected Pass attempts 31.3 Carries 6.0 The point estimate was close even though the rank was off.
-4.2 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
- RB
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET · vs NYJ · PPR
- Projected FP
- 17.9
- TacoBot xFP
- 27.6
- Actual FP
- 41.4
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankRB1RB1Exact rank · +23.5 FP vs projectionMore DetailsAbove 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 8.0–29.4 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 16.7
- Top-5 chance
- 47%
- Actual opportunities
- 28
Jahmyr Gibbs workload comparison Workload Projected Carries 17.5 Targets 4.1 The rank call landed, while the point estimate was off and the result exceeded the published P10–P90 range.
+13.8 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
- RB
Christian McCaffrey
SF · vs ARI · PPR
- Projected FP
- 15.9
- TacoBot xFP
- 19.0
- Actual FP
- 21.6
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankRB3RB63 spots off · +5.7 FP vs projectionMore DetailsInside 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 6.2–27.2 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 14.6
- Top-5 chance
- 38%
- Actual opportunities
- 20
Christian McCaffrey workload comparison Workload Projected Carries 11.3 Targets 4.7 A surprising score, but still inside TacoBot's published P10–P90 range.
+2.6 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
Right Process, Wrong Result
- TE
Travis Kelce
KC · vs MIA · PPR
- Projected FP
- 7.6
- TacoBot xFP
- 5.2
- Actual FP
- 13.9
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankTE4TE117 spots off · +6.3 FP vs projectionMore DetailsInside 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.4–15.6 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 6.4
- Top-5 chance
- 17%
- Actual opportunities
- 2
Travis Kelce workload comparison Workload Projected Targets 4.5 The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.
+8.7 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
- WR
CeeDee Lamb
DAL · vs BAL · PPR
- Projected FP
- 12.1
- TacoBot xFP
- 11.9
- Actual FP
- 20.2
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankWR4WR117 spots off · +8.1 FP vs projectionMore DetailsInside 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 3.3–23.0 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 10.6
- Top-5 chance
- 16%
- Actual opportunities
- 8
CeeDee Lamb workload comparison Workload Projected Carries 0.2 Targets 6.6 The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.
+8.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
- RB
Kenny Gainwell
TB · vs MIN · PPR
- Projected FP
- 7.2
- TacoBot xFP
- 10.1
- Actual FP
- 3.0
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankRB24RB5329 spots off · -4.2 FP vs projectionMore DetailsInside 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.8–14.2 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 6.1
- Top-5 chance
- 5%
- Actual opportunities
- 8
Kenny Gainwell workload comparison Workload Projected Carries 4.2 Targets 3.3 The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.
-7.1 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
Where TacoBot Actually Missed
- WR
Michael Wilson
ARI · vs SF · PPR
- Projected FP
- 7.9
- TacoBot xFP
- 32.2
- Actual FP
- 25.9
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankWR28WR424 spots off · +18.0 FP vs projectionMore DetailsAbove 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.6–15.9 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 6.6
- Top-5 chance
- 4%
- Actual opportunities
- 17
Michael Wilson workload comparison Workload Projected Targets 5.3 The opportunity gap flags a role, team volume or game environment assumption for review.
-6.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
- QB
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · vs SF · PPR
- Projected FP
- 8.7
- TacoBot xFP
- 31.4
- Actual FP
- 25.6
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankQB26QB422 spots off · +16.9 FP vs projectionMore DetailsAbove 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 0.0–19.3 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 8.4
- Top-5 chance
- 6%
- Actual opportunities
- 55
Jacoby Brissett workload comparison Workload Projected Pass attempts 22.8 Carries 1.7 The opportunity gap flags a role, team volume or game environment assumption for review.
-5.8 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
- QB
Case Keenum
CHI · vs PHI · PPR
- Projected FP
- 7.5
- TacoBot xFP
- 22.7
- Actual FP
- 24.5
TacoBot mean
Actual opportunities
Final score
RankQB28QB523 spots off · +17.0 FP vs projectionMore DetailsAbove 80% range
Score comparison
Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 0.0–16.4 FP (P10–P90). - Median FP
- 7.0
- Top-5 chance
- 3%
- Actual opportunities
- 36
Case Keenum workload comparison Workload Projected Pass attempts 22.9 Carries 1.5 The opportunity gap flags a role, team volume or game environment assumption for review.
+1.8 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)
Is TacoBot Getting Better?
Finalized PPR results only. Point and rank MAE are better when lower; Spearman and P10–P90 coverage are better when higher. A dash means that week has no published final grade.
| Metric | W1 | W2 | W3 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point MAE | — | — | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Rank MAE | — | — | 33.2 | 33.2 |
| Spearman | — | — | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| P10–P90 | — | — | 86% | 86% |
Season values pool all graded player weeks. P10–P90 is the share of actual scores inside the model's published 80% interval. MAE is the average miss in points or rank spots. Spearman shows how closely the predicted player order matched the real one (1 is perfect).
How this ranking works
How to read TacoBot Projections
- TacoBot simulates connected football games at least 10,000 times and summarizes each player's actual simulated outcomes.
- Fantasy scores are not assumed to follow a bell curve.
- Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles, not guaranteed low and high scores.
- Volatility is the standard deviation of those simulated fantasy points.
- Expected carries, targets and QB pass attempts show the workload behind a projection.
Data as of September 29, 2026. Source: TacoBot Monte Carlo · nflverse observed data.
View TacoBot Projections rankings