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TacoBot Projections

Where TacoBot Was Right & Wrong — Week 6

How TacoBot's projections fared against actual results.

October 20, 2026Final recap · Week 6

What changed from the prior period

D'Andre Swift made the largest rank gain, moving up 14 spots.

Javonte Williams had the largest rank drop, moving down 1 spots.

Where TacoBot Nailed It

  • QB

    Josh Allen

    BUF · vs LV · PPR

    Projected FP
    17.5

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    18.4

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    18.3

    Final score

    RankQB1QB10
    9 spots off · +0.8 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected17.5xFP18.4Actual18.3
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 8.0–27.5 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    17.2
    Top-5 chance
    31%
    Actual opportunities
    35
    Josh Allen workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts30.633.0
    Carries4.55.0

    The point estimate was close even though the rank was off.

    -0.1 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • QB

    Brock Purdy

    SF · vs WAS · PPR

    Projected FP
    16.8

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    20.3

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    17.4

    Final score

    RankQB2QB11
    9 spots off · +0.5 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected16.8xFP20.3Actual17.4
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 0.0–28.1 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    17.4
    Top-5 chance
    32%
    Actual opportunities
    34
    Brock Purdy workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts24.529.0
    Carries2.95.0

    The point estimate was close even though the rank was off.

    -2.9 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • RB

    Bijan Robinson

    ATL · vs CHI · PPR

    Projected FP
    17.4

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    7.3

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    7.3

    Final score

    RankRB1RB32
    31 spots off · -10.1 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected17.4xFP7.3Actual7.3
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 7.1–29.3 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    16.1
    Top-5 chance
    45%
    Actual opportunities
    11
    Bijan Robinson workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries16.59.0
    Targets3.92.0

    A surprising score, but still inside TacoBot's published P10–P90 range.

    +0.0 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Right Process, Wrong Result

  • QB

    Justin Herbert

    LAC · vs KC · PPR

    Projected FP
    16.1

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    16.9

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    8.8

    Final score

    RankQB7QB25
    18 spots off · -7.3 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected16.1xFP16.9Actual8.8
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 7.4–25.3 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    15.7
    Top-5 chance
    23%
    Actual opportunities
    42
    Justin Herbert workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Pass attempts32.237.0
    Carries4.25.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    -8.2 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • RB

    Jawhar Jordan

    HOU · vs JAX · PPR

    Projected FP
    6.5

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    4.7

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    12.0

    Final score

    RankRB30RB19
    11 spots off · +5.5 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected6.5xFP4.7Actual12.0
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.4–13.5 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    5.1
    Top-5 chance
    4%
    Actual opportunities
    7
    Jawhar Jordan workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries7.46.0
    Targets1.31.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    +7.3 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • TE

    Hunter Henry

    NE · vs NYJ · PPR

    Projected FP
    7.0

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    8.1

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    14.8

    Final score

    RankTE8TE7
    1 spot off · +7.8 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected7.0xFP8.1Actual14.8
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 0.0–15.1 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    5.5
    Top-5 chance
    15%
    Actual opportunities
    5
    Hunter Henry workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Targets3.95.0

    The opportunity forecast was close. Scoring landed in a less likely part of TacoBot's simulated range.

    +6.7 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Where TacoBot Actually Missed

  • WR

    CeeDee Lamb

    DAL · vs GB · PPR

    Projected FP
    7.2

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    29.9

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    16.0

    Final score

    RankWR31WR18
    13 spots off · +8.8 FP vs projection
    More DetailsInside 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected7.2xFP29.9Actual16.0
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 0.0–17.7 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    5.3
    Top-5 chance
    9%
    Actual opportunities
    18
    CeeDee Lamb workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries0.10.0
    Targets3.918.0

    The targets forecast was 3.9 versus 18.0 actual.

    -13.9 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • WR

    Matthew Golden

    GB · vs DAL · PPR

    Projected FP
    8.5

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    28.4

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    22.4

    Final score

    RankWR14WR5
    9 spots off · +13.9 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected8.5xFP28.4Actual22.4
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.4–17.9 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    7.1
    Top-5 chance
    9%
    Actual opportunities
    13
    Matthew Golden workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries0.30.0
    Targets4.913.0

    The targets forecast was 4.9 versus 13.0 actual.

    -6.0 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

  • WR

    Emeka Egbuka

    TB · vs PIT · PPR

    Projected FP
    7.6

    TacoBot mean

    TacoBot xFP
    27.3

    Actual opportunities

    Actual FP
    17.8

    Final score

    RankWR24WR12
    12 spots off · +10.2 FP vs projection
    More DetailsAbove 80% range

    Score comparison

    Projected7.6xFP27.3Actual17.8
    Shaded band: TacoBot's 80% range, 1.4–15.5 FP (P10–P90).
    Median FP
    6.4
    Top-5 chance
    6%
    Actual opportunities
    16
    Emeka Egbuka workload comparison
    WorkloadProjectedActual
    Carries0.20.0
    Targets5.316.0

    The targets forecast was 5.3 versus 16.0 actual.

    -9.5 FP vs opportunity value (xFP)

Is TacoBot Getting Better?

Finalized PPR results only. Point and rank MAE are better when lower; Spearman and P10–P90 coverage are better when higher. A dash means that week has no published final grade.

MetricW1W2W3W4W5W6Season
Point MAE——2.82.72.72.62.7
Rank MAE——33.233.234.631.833.2
Spearman——0.720.720.670.680.70
P10–P90——86%87%85%86%86%

Season values pool all graded player weeks. P10–P90 is the share of actual scores inside the model's published 80% interval. MAE is the average miss in points or rank spots. Spearman shows how closely the predicted player order matched the real one (1 is perfect).

How this ranking works

How to read TacoBot Projections

  • TacoBot simulates connected football games at least 10,000 times and summarizes each player's actual simulated outcomes.
  • Fantasy scores are not assumed to follow a bell curve.
  • Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles, not guaranteed low and high scores.
  • Volatility is the standard deviation of those simulated fantasy points.
  • Expected carries, targets and QB pass attempts show the workload behind a projection.

Data as of October 20, 2026. Source: TacoBot Monte Carlo · nflverse observed data.

View TacoBot Projections rankings

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