TacoBot Projections
TacoBot Projections: Week 3
Jahmyr Gibbs leads the Week 3 edition.
Explore the Week 3 Starters by position →
The Week 3 Board
This forecast captures the projected leaders before the week's games. The live ranking table may update; this article preserves this edition's projections.
#1
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET · RB
17.90
New this week · Projected fantasy points
Floor: 8.00 · Ceiling: 29.41 · Volatility: — · Expected Carries: 17.51 · Expected Targets: 4.13
#2
Bijan Robinson
ATL · RB
16.11
New this week · Projected fantasy points
Floor: 7.10 · Ceiling: 27.00 · Volatility: — · Expected Carries: 17.05 · Expected Targets: 4.40
#3
Christian McCaffrey
SF · RB
15.91
New this week · Projected fantasy points
Floor: 6.20 · Ceiling: 27.20 · Volatility: — · Expected Carries: 11.32 · Expected Targets: 4.74
#4
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET · WR
15.20
New this week · Projected fantasy points
Floor: 5.40 · Ceiling: 26.61 · Volatility: — · Expected Carries: 0.11 · Expected Targets: 8.02
#5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA · WR
14.18
New this week · Projected fantasy points
Floor: 4.60 · Ceiling: 25.30 · Volatility: — · Expected Carries: 0.22 · Expected Targets: 7.92
#6
Jonathan Taylor
IND · RB
13.85
New this week · Projected fantasy points
Floor: 5.60 · Ceiling: 23.80 · Volatility: — · Expected Carries: 16.45 · Expected Targets: 2.84
Overall projected scoring leaders
Josh Allen (QB): 18.93 projected PPR points and a 85% probability of at least one passing, rushing or receiving touchdown.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 17.90 projected PPR points and a 48% probability of at least one passing, rushing or receiving touchdown.
Bijan Robinson (RB): 16.11 projected PPR points and a 38% probability of at least one passing, rushing or receiving touchdown.
Christian McCaffrey (RB): 15.91 projected PPR points and a 44% probability of at least one passing, rushing or receiving touchdown.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 15.20 projected PPR points and a 37% probability of at least one passing, rushing or receiving touchdown.
The model's positional leaders
QB: Josh Allen leads at 18.93 projected points, with an 80% simulated range of 8.6–29.9.
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 17.90 projected points, with an 80% simulated range of 8.0–29.4.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown leads at 15.20 projected points, with an 80% simulated range of 5.4–26.6.
TE: George Kittle leads at 10.50 projected points, with an 80% simulated range of 1.8–21.3.
FLEX: Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 17.90 projected points, with an 80% simulated range of 8.0–29.4.
Upside in the simulated tail
Josh Allen (BUF QB): mean 18.93; 10th–90th percentiles 8.6–29.9; expected carries 6.0, targets 0.0; out 0%, limited 0%.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB): mean 17.90; 10th–90th percentiles 8.0–29.4; expected carries 17.5, targets 4.1; out 0%, limited 0%.
Christian McCaffrey (SF RB): mean 15.91; 10th–90th percentiles 6.2–27.2; expected carries 11.3, targets 4.7; out 0%, limited 0%.
Brock Purdy (SF QB): mean 14.75; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–27.2; expected carries 2.6, targets 0.0; out 0%, limited 0%.
Bijan Robinson (ATL RB): mean 16.11; 10th–90th percentiles 7.1–27.0; expected carries 17.0, targets 4.4; out 0%, limited 0%.
Wide outcome ranges
Brock Purdy (SF QB): mean 14.75; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–27.2; expected carries 2.6, targets 0.0; out 0%, limited 0%.
Lamar Jackson (BAL QB): mean 12.02; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–26.0; expected carries 3.1, targets 0.0; out 0%, limited 0%.
Jared Goff (DET QB): mean 14.14; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–25.2; expected carries 2.2, targets 0.0; out 0%, limited 0%.
Patrick Mahomes (KC QB): mean 13.29; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–24.9; expected carries 2.7, targets 0.0; out 0%, limited 0%.
Drew Lock (SEA QB): mean 13.18; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–24.0; expected carries 2.2, targets 0.0; out 0%, limited 0%.
Rankings sensitive to availability
Mike Evans (SF WR): mean 6.22; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–16.5; expected carries 0.0, targets 3.3; out 25%, limited 25%.
Saquon Barkley (PHI RB): mean 5.87; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–14.3; expected carries 6.8, targets 1.3; out 25%, limited 25%.
Rico Dowdle (PIT RB): mean 5.50; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–13.6; expected carries 5.4, targets 1.6; out 25%, limited 25%.
J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB): mean 5.18; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–12.8; expected carries 6.8, targets 0.8; out 25%, limited 25%.
Jadarian Price (SEA RB): mean 4.40; 10th–90th percentiles 0.0–11.4; expected carries 4.8, targets 1.2; out 25%, limited 25%.
Where the model differs from the last game
Audric Estimé: 0.0 expected carries plus targets versus 26 in the last recorded game. The model pools recent roles and redistributes work within this week's roster.
Malik Davis: 0.0 expected carries plus targets versus 22 in the last recorded game. The model pools recent roles and redistributes work within this week's roster.
Zach Charbonnet: 0.0 expected carries plus targets versus 21 in the last recorded game. The model pools recent roles and redistributes work within this week's roster.
Kenneth Walker III: 13.9 expected carries plus targets versus 34 in the last recorded game. The model pools recent roles and redistributes work within this week's roster.
Ty Johnson: 0.0 expected carries plus targets versus 15 in the last recorded game. The model pools recent roles and redistributes work within this week's roster.
How to read the forecast
Percentiles of simulated outcomes, not guaranteed floors or ceilings.
These are regulation-only simulations built from nflverse observed statistics. No external fantasy forecasts or betting lines are inputs. Rookie roles, old roster status and late injuries require manual review.
PPR FLEX forecast
| Rank | Player | Mean Fantasy Points | 80% simulated range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 17.90 | 8.0–29.4 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | 16.11 | 7.1–27.0 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | 15.91 | 6.2–27.2 |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 15.20 | 5.4–26.6 |
| 5 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 14.18 | 4.6–25.3 |
| 6 | Jonathan Taylor | 13.85 | 5.6–23.8 |
| 7 | Derrick Henry | 12.72 | 4.8–22.6 |
| 8 | Ja'Marr Chase | 12.11 | 3.4–22.7 |
| 9 | CeeDee Lamb | 12.05 | 3.3–23.0 |
| 10 | Chase Brown | 11.93 | 4.6–20.9 |
| 11 | Ashton Jeanty | 11.72 | 4.6–20.4 |
| 12 | DeVonta Smith | 11.08 | 2.9–21.2 |
| 13 | Justin Jefferson | 11.00 | 2.7–21.3 |
| 14 | De'Von Achane | 10.82 | 4.0–19.5 |
| 15 | James Cook | 10.80 | 3.8–19.8 |
| 16 | Kenneth Walker III | 10.78 | 3.8–19.4 |
| 17 | Davante Adams | 10.77 | 2.6–20.7 |
| 18 | George Pickens | 10.59 | 2.0–21.1 |
| 19 | George Kittle | 10.50 | 1.8–21.3 |
| 20 | Javonte Williams | 10.45 | 3.7–19.5 |
| 21 | Rashee Rice | 10.26 | 2.3–20.0 |
| 22 | Jaylen Warren | 10.11 | 3.2–18.8 |
| 23 | Christian Watson | 9.93 | 1.8–20.1 |
| 24 | Breece Hall | 9.91 | 3.2–18.5 |
| 25 | Garrett Wilson | 9.81 | 2.2–19.4 |
| 26 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 9.74 | 1.6–20.2 |
| 27 | Trey McBride | 9.71 | 2.9–18.1 |
| 28 | Bucky Irving | 9.66 | 3.1–17.9 |
| 29 | DK Metcalf | 9.54 | 2.0–19.1 |
| 30 | Kyren Williams | 9.43 | 3.0–17.5 |
| 31 | Chris Olave | 9.42 | 2.1–18.3 |
| 32 | Parker Washington | 9.09 | 1.8–18.2 |
| 33 | Drake London | 8.97 | 1.8–17.8 |
| 34 | Tee Higgins | 8.96 | 1.7–18.2 |
| 35 | Jameson Williams | 8.63 | 1.6–17.8 |
| 36 | Khalil Shakir | 8.62 | 1.6–17.5 |
| 37 | Keenan Allen | 8.46 | 1.7–16.8 |
| 38 | Courtland Sutton | 8.44 | 1.6–17.2 |
| 39 | Ladd McConkey | 8.43 | 1.6–17.1 |
| 40 | Jaylen Waddle | 8.41 | 1.6–17.0 |
| 41 | Aaron Jones | 8.40 | 2.4–16.1 |
| 42 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 8.40 | 2.3–16.2 |
| 43 | Mack Hollins | 8.34 | 1.5–17.4 |
| 44 | Tre Tucker | 8.32 | 1.6–16.8 |
| 45 | Omarion Hampton | 8.24 | 2.4–15.7 |
| 46 | Quentin Johnston | 8.13 | 1.5–16.7 |
| 47 | Chuba Hubbard | 8.11 | 2.8–14.9 |
| 48 | Josh Downs | 8.10 | 1.6–16.4 |
| 49 | D'Andre Swift | 7.92 | 2.6–14.8 |
| 50 | TreVeyon Henderson | 7.91 | 2.3–15.4 |
| 51 | Michael Wilson | 7.90 | 1.6–15.9 |
| 52 | Tony Pollard | 7.89 | 2.5–14.9 |
| 53 | Tyler Warren | 7.87 | 1.6–15.9 |
| 54 | Stefon Diggs | 7.80 | 1.5–16.2 |
| 55 | Jalen Coker | 7.74 | 1.5–15.7 |
| 56 | Romeo Doubs | 7.73 | 1.2–16.4 |
| 57 | Travis Kelce | 7.60 | 1.4–15.6 |
| 58 | Tetairoa McMillan | 7.60 | 1.5–15.4 |
| 59 | Mark Andrews | 7.58 | 1.1–16.0 |
| 60 | Tucker Kraft | 7.57 | 0.0–16.5 |
| 61 | Sam LaPorta | 7.55 | 1.4–15.9 |
| 62 | Adonai Mitchell | 7.51 | 1.3–15.7 |
| 63 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 7.45 | 1.6–14.6 |
| 64 | Travis Etienne | 7.38 | 2.1–14.2 |
| 65 | Brian Thomas Jr. | 7.37 | 1.2–15.4 |
| 66 | Hunter Henry | 7.35 | 1.2–15.7 |
| 67 | Dalton Schultz | 7.28 | 1.4–15.1 |
| 68 | Kenny Gainwell | 7.24 | 1.8–14.2 |
| 69 | Terry McLaurin | 7.23 | 0.0–15.4 |
| 70 | Emanuel Wilson | 7.21 | 1.9–14.4 |
| 71 | Chris Godwin Jr. | 7.21 | 1.3–15.1 |
| 72 | Jakobi Meyers | 7.20 | 1.3–15.0 |
| 73 | Germie Bernard | 7.19 | 1.1–15.4 |
| 74 | Elijah Sarratt | 7.10 | 0.0–15.4 |
| 75 | Luther Burden III | 7.06 | 1.3–14.6 |
| 76 | Matthew Golden | 7.05 | 0.4–15.2 |
| 77 | Ryan Flournoy | 6.91 | 1.0–14.9 |
| 78 | Quinshon Judkins | 6.85 | 2.1–13.1 |
| 79 | Alvin Kamara | 6.83 | 1.8–13.5 |
| 80 | Cooper Kupp | 6.71 | 0.0–14.9 |
| 81 | Rashid Shaheed | 6.61 | 0.0–14.6 |
| 82 | Emeka Egbuka | 6.49 | 0.0–14.2 |
| 83 | Dontayvion Wicks | 6.48 | 0.0–14.4 |
| 84 | Jordan Addison | 6.47 | 0.0–14.1 |
| 85 | Gary Jennings | 6.46 | 0.0–14.1 |
| 86 | Rachaad White | 6.40 | 1.4–13.0 |
| 87 | Keon Coleman | 6.40 | 0.0–14.4 |
| 88 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 6.39 | 1.6–13.0 |
| 89 | Tyjae Spears | 6.38 | 1.6–12.6 |
| 90 | Kyle Monangai | 6.37 | 1.7–12.6 |
| 91 | Xavier Worthy | 6.35 | 0.0–13.8 |
| 92 | MarShawn Lloyd | 6.33 | 1.4–13.0 |
| 93 | Isaiah Williams | 6.31 | 0.0–13.5 |
| 94 | Devaughn Vele | 6.31 | 0.0–13.6 |
| 95 | Jalen McMillan | 6.26 | 0.0–13.9 |
| 96 | Woody Marks | 6.24 | 1.5–12.7 |
| 97 | Michael Mayer | 6.23 | 1.0–13.3 |
| 98 | Mike Evans | 6.22 | 0.0–16.5 |
| 99 | Rashod Bateman | 6.20 | 0.0–13.9 |
| 100 | Pat Bryant | 6.20 | 0.0–13.7 |
How this ranking works
How to read TacoBot Projections
- TacoBot simulates connected football games at least 10,000 times and summarizes each player's actual simulated outcomes.
- Fantasy scores are not assumed to follow a bell curve.
- Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles, not guaranteed low and high scores.
- Volatility is the standard deviation of those simulated fantasy points.
- Expected carries, targets and QB pass attempts show the workload behind a projection.
Data as of September 23, 2026. Source: TacoBot Monte Carlo · nflverse observed data.
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