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TACOBOT PROJECTIONS

Week 5 Starters: WR

These 5 Players are projected by TacoBot to be top 5 in their position this week.

These rankings come from TacoBot's weekly projections. Floor and ceiling are P10 and P90 (see distributions).

Top 5 WR starters

  1. #1 WR

    Amon-Ra St. Brown

    DET • vs ARI

    14.8Mean Fantasy Points

    Highest meanHighest ceilingHighest floorMost volatileHighest top-5 probability
    Mean Fantasy Points
    14.8
    80% Range
    4.8–26.5
    Floor
    4.8
    Ceiling
    26.5
    Volatility
    8.6
    Expected Targets
    7.4
    Expected Carries
    0.1
    Top-5 Probability
    26%
    Top-12 Probability
    44%

    TacoBot expects 7.4 targets and gives him a 26% chance of a top-five WR finish.

    -160 fantasy points
    ● P10: 4.8● Median: 13.6● Mean Fantasy Points: 14.8● P90: 26.5
  2. #2 WR

    CeeDee Lamb

    DAL • vs TB

    13.3Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    13.3
    80% Range
    3.8–24.6
    Floor
    3.8
    Ceiling
    24.6
    Volatility
    8.4
    Expected Targets
    6.5
    Expected Carries
    0.3
    Top-5 Probability
    21%
    Top-12 Probability
    37%

    TacoBot expects 6.5 targets and gives him a 21% chance of a top-five WR finish.

    -265 fantasy points
    ● P10: 3.8● Median: 12.0● Mean Fantasy Points: 13.3● P90: 24.6
  3. #3 WR

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba

    SEA • vs SF

    12.9Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    12.9
    80% Range
    4.0–23.3
    Floor
    4.0
    Ceiling
    23.3
    Volatility
    7.7
    Expected Targets
    7.4
    Expected Carries
    0.2
    Top-5 Probability
    18%
    Top-12 Probability
    35%

    TacoBot expects 7.4 targets and gives him a 18% chance of a top-five WR finish.

    -058 fantasy points
    ● P10: 4.0● Median: 11.6● Mean Fantasy Points: 12.9● P90: 23.3
  4. #4 WR

    Puka Nacua

    LA • vs BUF

    11.5Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    11.5
    80% Range
    3.2–21.6
    Floor
    3.2
    Ceiling
    21.6
    Volatility
    7.4
    Expected Targets
    6.0
    Expected Carries
    0.5
    Top-5 Probability
    14%
    Top-12 Probability
    28%

    TacoBot expects 6.0 targets and gives him a 14% chance of a top-five WR finish.

    -155 fantasy points
    ● P10: 3.2● Median: 10.2● Mean Fantasy Points: 11.5● P90: 21.6
  5. #5 WR

    Chris Olave

    NO • vs MIN

    10.6Mean Fantasy Points

    Most stable
    Mean Fantasy Points
    10.6
    80% Range
    2.8–20.2
    Floor
    2.8
    Ceiling
    20.2
    Volatility
    7.0
    Expected Targets
    6.6
    Expected Carries
    0.1
    Top-5 Probability
    11%
    Top-12 Probability
    24%

    TacoBot expects 6.6 targets and gives him a 11% chance of a top-five WR finish.

    -149 fantasy points
    ● P10: 2.8● Median: 9.4● Mean Fantasy Points: 10.6● P90: 20.2

forecast: 10/6/2026 · model: connected-plays-v3-qb-situational · run: 20261006T185955396012-f441baca9e00

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