← All weekly articles

TACOBOT PROJECTIONS

Week 5 Starters

These 5 Players are projected by TacoBot to be top 5 in their position this week.

These rankings come from TacoBot's weekly projections. Floor and ceiling are P10 and P90 (see distributions).

Top 5 QB starters

  1. #1 QB

    Jared Goff

    DET • vs ARI

    18.5Mean Fantasy Points

    Highest meanHighest floorHighest top-5 probability
    Mean Fantasy Points
    18.5
    80% Range
    9.3–28.1
    Floor
    9.3
    Ceiling
    28.1
    Volatility
    7.5
    Expected Pass Attempts
    32.5
    Expected Carries
    1.9
    Expected Targets
    0.0
    Top-5 Probability
    32%
    Top-12 Probability
    61%

    TacoBot expects 32.5 pass attempts and gives him a 32% chance of a top-five QB finish.

    -254 fantasy points
    ● P10: 9.3● Median: 18.2● Mean Fantasy Points: 18.5● P90: 28.1
  2. #2 QB

    Josh Allen

    BUF • vs LA

    18.0Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    18.0
    80% Range
    8.4–28.1
    Floor
    8.4
    Ceiling
    28.1
    Volatility
    7.8
    Expected Pass Attempts
    31.1
    Expected Carries
    4.5
    Expected Targets
    0.0
    Top-5 Probability
    30%
    Top-12 Probability
    58%

    TacoBot expects 31.1 pass attempts and gives him a 30% chance of a top-five QB finish.

    -663 fantasy points
    ● P10: 8.4● Median: 17.8● Mean Fantasy Points: 18.0● P90: 28.1
  3. #3 QB

    Dak Prescott

    DAL • vs TB

    17.1Mean Fantasy Points

    Highest ceilingMost volatile
    Mean Fantasy Points
    17.1
    80% Range
    0.0–28.4
    Floor
    0.0
    Ceiling
    28.4
    Volatility
    9.2
    Expected Pass Attempts
    29.4
    Expected Carries
    2.5
    Expected Targets
    0.0
    Top-5 Probability
    30%
    Top-12 Probability
    57%

    TacoBot expects 29.4 pass attempts and gives him a 30% chance of a top-five QB finish.

    -356 fantasy points
    ● P10: 0.0● Median: 17.6● Mean Fantasy Points: 17.1● P90: 28.4
  4. #4 QB

    Jacoby Brissett

    ARI • vs DET

    16.1Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    16.1
    80% Range
    6.9–25.6
    Floor
    6.9
    Ceiling
    25.6
    Volatility
    7.4
    Expected Pass Attempts
    32.7
    Expected Carries
    2.3
    Expected Targets
    0.0
    Top-5 Probability
    22%
    Top-12 Probability
    48%

    TacoBot expects 32.7 pass attempts and gives him a 22% chance of a top-five QB finish.

    -351 fantasy points
    ● P10: 6.9● Median: 15.7● Mean Fantasy Points: 16.1● P90: 25.6
  5. #5 QB

    Jordan Love

    GB • vs CHI

    16.0Mean Fantasy Points

    Most stable
    Mean Fantasy Points
    16.0
    80% Range
    7.0–25.3
    Floor
    7.0
    Ceiling
    25.3
    Volatility
    7.2
    Expected Pass Attempts
    30.1
    Expected Carries
    2.0
    Expected Targets
    0.0
    Top-5 Probability
    20%
    Top-12 Probability
    46%

    TacoBot expects 30.1 pass attempts and gives him a 20% chance of a top-five QB finish.

    -565 fantasy points
    ● P10: 7.0● Median: 15.6● Mean Fantasy Points: 16.0● P90: 25.3

forecast: 10/6/2026 · model: connected-plays-v3-qb-situational · run: 20261006T185955396012-f441baca9e00

see full projections