TacoBot xFPOct 13, 2026
TacoBot xFP: Week 5
Daniel Jones left the biggest gap between opportunity and scoring in Week 5. Jaylen Warren beat his opportunity value by the most.
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TacoBot xFP
Game script based expected fantasy points from TacoBot, Beep Boop.
2026 leaderboard
Latest verified results through Week 5.
| Rank | Player | Points left on field | Expected FP | Actual FP | Opportunities | Previous rank | Weekly movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel JonesIND · QB | 16.46 | 27.54 | 11.08 | 47 | 127 | +126 |
| 2 | Rome OdunzeCHI · WR | 11.90 | 18.90 | 7.00 | 9 | 248 | +246 |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR | 11.87 | 24.77 | 12.90 | 11 | 44 | +41 |
| 4 | Laquon TreadwellIND · WR | 10.58 | 15.98 | 5.40 | 8 | 118 | +114 |
| 5 | Darnell MooneyNYG · WR | 10.22 | 13.62 | 3.40 | 7 | 45 | +40 |
| 6 | Jonathan TaylorIND · RB | 10.16 | 21.36 | 11.20 | 19 | 268 | +262 |
| 7 | Jalen BrooksARI · WR | 10.08 | 13.68 | 3.60 | 7 | — | New |
| 8 | Dameon PiercePHI · RB | 9.92 | 13.12 | 3.20 | 16 | — | New |
| 9 | Malik NabersNYG · WR | 9.27 | 38.37 | 29.10 | 20 | 302 | +293 |
| 10 | Carnell TateTEN · WR | 8.25 | 9.85 | 1.60 | 5 | 271 | +261 |
| 11 | Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR | 8.09 | 8.09 | 0.00 | 3 | 278 | +267 |
| 12 | Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB | 8.05 | 19.65 | 11.60 | 25 | 131 | +119 |
| 13 | Luther Burden IIICHI · WR | 7.75 | 16.65 | 8.90 | 10 | 181 | +168 |
| 14 | Bijan RobinsonATL · RB | 7.68 | 23.48 | 15.80 | 24 | 306 | +292 |
| 15 | Cam WardTEN · QB | 7.27 | 14.27 | 7.00 | 37 | 214 | +199 |
| 16 | Tyson BagentCHI · QB | 7.23 | 12.41 | 5.18 | 24 | 5 | -11 |
| 17 | Chase BrownCIN · RB | 6.88 | 15.88 | 9.00 | 17 | 130 | +113 |
| 18 | Dawson KnoxBUF · TE | 6.64 | 8.24 | 1.60 | 3 | 191 | +173 |
| 19 | Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB | 5.78 | 13.79 | 8.00 | 18 | 33 | +14 |
| 20 | Puka NacuaLA · WR | 5.74 | 43.44 | 37.70 | 26 | 283 | +263 |
| 21 | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE | 5.68 | 7.08 | 1.40 | 4 | 235 | +214 |
| 22 | Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RB | 5.68 | 20.48 | 14.80 | 18 | 304 | +282 |
| 23 | Keenan AllenIND · WR | 5.65 | 15.15 | 9.50 | 9 | — | New |
| 24 | Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB | 5.63 | 20.03 | 14.40 | 34 | 252 | +228 |
| 25 | Kyren WilliamsLA · RB | 5.61 | 25.21 | 19.60 | 24 | 280 | +255 |
| 26 | Romeo DoubsNE · WR | 5.52 | 8.12 | 2.60 | 3 | 273 | +247 |
| 27 | Michael WilsonARI · WR | 5.51 | 12.79 | 7.28 | 8 | 3 | -24 |
| 28 | Isaac TeSlaaDET · WR | 5.45 | 5.45 | 0.00 | 2 | 156 | +128 |
| 29 | Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB | 5.38 | 19.58 | 14.20 | 39 | 126 | +97 |
| 30 | Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB | 5.31 | 7.51 | 2.20 | 13 | 69 | +39 |
| 31 | Case KeenumCHI · QB | 5.29 | 10.01 | 4.72 | 20 | — | New |
| 32 | Jerry JeudyCLE · WR | 5.26 | 10.16 | 4.90 | 7 | 227 | +195 |
| 33 | CeeDee LambDAL · WR | 5.19 | 8.09 | 2.90 | 5 | 285 | +252 |
| 34 | Roschon JohnsonCHI · RB | 5.15 | 14.15 | 9.00 | 12 | 102 | +68 |
| 35 | Treylon BurksWAS · WR | 4.74 | 9.34 | 4.60 | 5 | 289 | +254 |
| 36 | Najee HarrisNYG · RB | 4.71 | 7.11 | 2.40 | 6 | 86 | +50 |
| 37 | Malik BensonLV · WR | 4.65 | 6.25 | 1.60 | 4 | — | New |
| 38 | Bo NixDEN · QB | 4.58 | 14.50 | 9.92 | 31 | 161 | +123 |
| 39 | Mark AndrewsBAL · TE | 4.53 | 11.33 | 6.80 | 6 | 190 | +151 |
| 40 | Bryce LanceNO · WR | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0.00 | 3 | 7 | -33 |
| 41 | Skyler BellBUF · WR | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0.00 | 2 | — | New |
| 42 | Colston LovelandCHI · TE | 4.40 | 8.30 | 3.90 | 5 | 12 | -30 |
| 43 | Deion BurksIND · WR | 4.32 | 4.32 | 0.00 | 2 | 103 | +60 |
| 44 | Foster MoreauHOU · TE | 4.11 | 6.91 | 2.80 | 3 | 157 | +113 |
| 45 | Reggie VirgilARI · WR | 4.03 | 8.93 | 4.90 | 5 | — | New |
| 46 | Ashton JeantyLV · RB | 3.88 | 14.58 | 10.70 | 16 | 162 | +116 |
| 47 | Omarion HamptonLAC · RB | 3.85 | 8.75 | 4.90 | 15 | 226 | +179 |
| 48 | Jonathan MingoDAL · WR | 3.84 | 7.84 | 4.00 | 4 | 55 | +7 |
| 49 | Jake FergusonDAL · TE | 3.80 | 8.70 | 4.90 | 6 | 82 | +33 |
| 50 | Sean TuckerTB · RB | 3.76 | 5.56 | 1.80 | 5 | 264 | +214 |
| 51 | Woody MarksHOU · RB | 3.70 | 16.20 | 12.50 | 19 | 245 | +194 |
| 52 | Tyler ShoughNO · QB | 3.68 | 7.52 | 3.84 | 25 | 35 | -17 |
| 53 | Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR | 3.65 | 8.45 | 4.80 | 6 | 276 | +223 |
| 54 | Jake MatthewsATL · OL | 3.58 | 3.58 | 0.00 | 1 | — | New |
| 55 | Dallas GoedertPHI · TE | 3.50 | 13.30 | 9.80 | 9 | — | New |
| 56 | Tony PollardTEN · RB | 3.41 | 8.61 | 5.20 | 15 | 6 | -50 |
| 57 | RJ HarveyDEN · RB | 3.35 | 4.05 | 0.70 | 4 | 244 | +187 |
| 58 | Zach ErtzPHI · TE | 3.34 | 3.34 | 0.00 | 2 | 56 | -2 |
| 59 | Brian RobinsonATL · RB | 3.23 | 4.83 | 1.60 | 8 | 309 | +250 |
| 60 | George KittleSF · TE | 3.16 | 10.56 | 7.40 | 6 | 296 | +236 |
| 61 | Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR | 3.13 | 7.43 | 4.30 | 4 | 279 | +218 |
| 62 | Keaton MitchellLAC · RB | 3.10 | 9.00 | 5.90 | 10 | 70 | +8 |
| 63 | Oronde Gadsden IILAC · TE | 2.96 | 2.96 | 0.00 | 1 | 34 | -29 |
| 64 | Pierre StrongGB · RB | 2.95 | 7.75 | 4.80 | 9 | — | New |
| 65 | LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · RB | 2.95 | 2.95 | 0.00 | 2 | — | New |
| 66 | Jauan JenningsMIN · WR | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 | 1 | 184 | +118 |
| 67 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · RB | 2.86 | 4.96 | 2.10 | 3 | 286 | +219 |
| 68 | Dak PrescottDAL · QB | 2.75 | 19.39 | 16.64 | 42 | 98 | +30 |
| 69 | Jameis WinstonNYG · QB | 2.69 | 30.53 | 27.84 | 58 | 295 | +226 |
| 70 | Jahan DotsonATL · WR | 2.62 | 10.02 | 7.40 | 4 | 291 | +221 |
| 71 | Kalif RaymondCHI · WR | 2.59 | 5.99 | 3.40 | 5 | 154 | +83 |
| 72 | Rachaad WhiteWAS · RB | 2.47 | 5.47 | 3.00 | 8 | — | New |
| 73 | Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE | 2.45 | 4.75 | 2.30 | 3 | 19 | -54 |
| 74 | Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR | 2.41 | 9.21 | 6.80 | 5 | 153 | +79 |
| 75 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineIND · WR | 2.35 | 2.35 | 0.00 | 1 | — | New |
| 76 | Tee HigginsCIN · WR | 2.34 | 6.54 | 4.20 | 4 | 200 | +124 |
| 77 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · RB | 2.31 | 7.41 | 5.10 | 6 | 144 | +67 |
| 78 | Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · TE | 2.29 | 2.29 | 0.00 | 2 | 106 | +28 |
| 79 | Dalton SchultzHOU · TE | 2.25 | 8.25 | 6.00 | 4 | 165 | +86 |
| 80 | Tre HarrisLAC · WR | 2.23 | 5.83 | 3.60 | 4 | 141 | +61 |
| 81 | Malik WashingtonMIA · WR | 2.19 | 14.29 | 12.10 | 9 | 228 | +147 |
| 82 | Tre TuckerLV · WR | 2.18 | 9.68 | 7.50 | 7 | 14 | -68 |
| 83 | AJ BarnerSEA · TE | 2.13 | 7.13 | 5.00 | 5 | 66 | -17 |
| 84 | Josh CameronJAX · WR | 2.11 | 9.41 | 7.30 | 6 | 255 | +171 |
| 85 | Jaylen WrightMIA · RB | 2.11 | 3.21 | 1.10 | 6 | 97 | +12 |
| 86 | Devaughn VeleNO · WR | 2.09 | 8.69 | 6.60 | 6 | 246 | +160 |
| 87 | Josh DownsIND · WR | 2.07 | 9.78 | 7.70 | 6 | 142 | +55 |
| 88 | Nico CollinsHOU · WR | 2.06 | 12.66 | 10.60 | 7 | 307 | +219 |
| 89 | Elijah ArroyoSEA · TE | 2.04 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 1 | — | New |
| 90 | Cooper KuppSEA · WR | 2.03 | 5.53 | 3.50 | 3 | 136 | +46 |
| 91 | Gavin BartholomewMIN · TE | 2.01 | 10.31 | 8.30 | 6 | 170 | +79 |
| 92 | Isaiah BondCLE · WR | 1.99 | 12.39 | 10.40 | 7 | 168 | +76 |
| 93 | C.J. StroudHOU · QB | 1.91 | 23.05 | 21.14 | 38 | 287 | +194 |
| 94 | Chris OlaveNO · WR | 1.88 | 10.48 | 8.60 | 6 | 231 | +137 |
| 95 | KaVontae TurpinDAL · WR | 1.85 | 6.05 | 4.20 | 4 | — | New |
| 96 | Luke FarrellSF · TE | 1.82 | 1.82 | 0.00 | 1 | — | New |
| 97 | Colby ParkinsonLA · TE | 1.77 | 3.07 | 1.30 | 2 | — | New |
| 98 | Elic AyomanorTEN · WR | 1.75 | 4.45 | 2.70 | 2 | 218 | +120 |
| 99 | Gunnar HelmTEN · TE | 1.72 | 1.72 | 0.00 | 1 | 178 | +79 |
| 100 | Kylen GransonTEN · TE | 1.71 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 1 | — | New |
How to read TacoBot xFP
- TacoBot xFP estimates the historical value of modeled carries, targets and pass attempts using field position, down, distance and game situation. Targets and pass attempts can also use air yards and end-zone location.
- Points Left = TacoBot xFP − Actual FP. Positive values mean scoring fell below opportunity value; negative values mean scoring exceeded it.
- xFP values the opportunities that actually occurred. It is not a pregame forecast, and play outcomes and win probability do not set the expected value.
- Actual FP uses the same modeled opportunities and TacoBot PPR scoring. Turnover deductions, returns and unmodeled plays are outside this comparison, so league totals may differ.
- A scoring gap describes this week. It does not establish the cause of the gap or guarantee a rebound or regression.
Data as of October 13, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.
Weekly editions
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