TacoBot xFP weekly
TacoBot xFP: Week 1
DK Metcalf left the biggest gap between opportunity and scoring in Week 1. Jalen Coker beat his opportunity value by the most.
Week 1 Recap
DK Metcalf scored 8.0 FP from opportunities worth 18.3 TacoBot xFP, leaving 10.3 points on the field. That value came from 10 modeled opportunities.
Jalen Coker went above his opportunity value: 33.8 actual FP against 16.4 xFP, a 17.4-point surplus. His 9 opportunities put the result in context. The gap describes this week's scoring; it does not guarantee what happens next.
Scoring Above & Below xFP
The five biggest surpluses and five biggest shortfalls in Week 1, together on one graph. Difference = Actual FP − TacoBot xFP.
Hover, tap or focus a player's bar to see Actual FP and xFP.
Jalen CokerCAR · WR
- Actual FP
- 33.8
- TacoBot xFP
- 16.4
- Difference
- +17.4
Derrick HenryBAL · RB
- Actual FP
- 35.3
- TacoBot xFP
- 19.4
- Difference
- +15.9
Christian WatsonGB · WR
- Actual FP
- 32.7
- TacoBot xFP
- 17.5
- Difference
- +15.2
Zay FlowersBAL · WR
- Actual FP
- 26.0
- TacoBot xFP
- 11.0
- Difference
- +15.0
D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB
- Actual FP
- 32.4
- TacoBot xFP
- 17.5
- Difference
- +14.9
Roman WilsonPIT · WR
- Actual FP
- 5.6
- TacoBot xFP
- 13.3
- Difference
- −7.7
Matthew StaffordLA · QB
- Actual FP
- 6.2
- TacoBot xFP
- 14.9
- Difference
- −8.7
Aaron RodgersPIT · QB
- Actual FP
- 12.8
- TacoBot xFP
- 22.1
- Difference
- −9.3
Jameson WilliamsDET · WR
- Actual FP
- 8.5
- TacoBot xFP
- 17.9
- Difference
- −9.4
DK MetcalfPIT · WR
- Actual FP
- 8.0
- TacoBot xFP
- 18.3
- Difference
- −10.3
Follow the Opportunities
The Most Valuable Workloads
The highest total TacoBot xFP at each position on this week's published board. Opportunity value reflects volume and situation, whether or not the final score matched it.
QB · xFP Leader
Caleb Williams
CHI · QB
- TacoBot xFP
- 29.5
- Actual FP
- 37.3
- Opportunities
- 39
RB · xFP Leader
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET · RB
- TacoBot xFP
- 29.8
- Actual FP
- 35.6
- Opportunities
- 34
WR · xFP Leader
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET · WR
- TacoBot xFP
- 25.3
- Actual FP
- 28.7
- Opportunities
- 14
TE · xFP Leader
Trey McBride
ARI · TE
- TacoBot xFP
- 23.8
- Actual FP
- 24.5
- Opportunities
- 13
Both xFP and Actual FP use TacoBot's PPR scoring on modeled carries, targets and pass attempts. Turnover deductions, return scoring and other unmodeled plays are outside this comparison, so Actual FP can differ from a league's full fantasy score. A dash means the stat is unavailable.
How this ranking works
How to read TacoBot xFP
- TacoBot xFP estimates the historical value of modeled carries, targets and pass attempts using field position, down, distance and game situation. Targets and pass attempts can also use air yards and end-zone location.
- Points Left = TacoBot xFP − Actual FP. Positive values mean scoring fell below opportunity value; negative values mean scoring exceeded it.
- xFP values the opportunities that actually occurred. It is not a pregame forecast, and play outcomes and win probability do not set the expected value.
- Actual FP uses the same modeled opportunities and TacoBot PPR scoring. Turnover deductions, returns and unmodeled plays are outside this comparison, so league totals may differ.
- A scoring gap describes this week. It does not establish the cause of the gap or guarantee a rebound or regression.
Data as of September 28, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.
View TacoBot xFP rankings