TacoBot xFP weekly
TacoBot xFP: Week 5
Daniel Jones left the biggest gap between opportunity and scoring in Week 5. Jaylen Warren beat his opportunity value by the most.
Week 5 Recap
Daniel Jones scored 11.1 FP from opportunities worth 27.5 TacoBot xFP, leaving 16.5 points on the field. That value came from 47 modeled opportunities.
Jaylen Warren went above his opportunity value: 36.8 actual FP against 15.4 xFP, a 21.4-point surplus. His 21 opportunities put the result in context. The gap describes this week's scoring; it does not guarantee what happens next.
Scoring Above & Below xFP
The five biggest surpluses and five biggest shortfalls in Week 5, together on one graph. Difference = Actual FP − TacoBot xFP.
Hover, tap or focus a player's bar to see Actual FP and xFP.
Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB
- Actual FP
- 36.8
- TacoBot xFP
- 15.4
- Difference
- +21.4
Parker WashingtonJAX · WR
- Actual FP
- 30.4
- TacoBot xFP
- 14.7
- Difference
- +15.8
Jayden DanielsWAS · QB
- Actual FP
- 30.4
- TacoBot xFP
- 15.2
- Difference
- +15.1
Christian WatsonGB · WR
- Actual FP
- 32.3
- TacoBot xFP
- 18.4
- Difference
- +13.9
Drake MayeNE · QB
- Actual FP
- 39.2
- TacoBot xFP
- 26.8
- Difference
- +12.4
Darnell MooneyNYG · WR
- Actual FP
- 3.4
- TacoBot xFP
- 13.6
- Difference
- −10.2
Laquon TreadwellIND · WR
- Actual FP
- 5.4
- TacoBot xFP
- 16.0
- Difference
- −10.6
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR
- Actual FP
- 12.9
- TacoBot xFP
- 24.8
- Difference
- −11.9
Rome OdunzeCHI · WR
- Actual FP
- 7.0
- TacoBot xFP
- 18.9
- Difference
- −11.9
Daniel JonesIND · QB
- Actual FP
- 11.1
- TacoBot xFP
- 27.5
- Difference
- −16.5
Follow the Opportunities
The Most Valuable Workloads
The highest total TacoBot xFP at each position on this week's published board. Opportunity value reflects volume and situation, whether or not the final score matched it.
QB · xFP Leader
Jameis Winston
NYG · QB
- TacoBot xFP
- 30.5
- Actual FP
- 27.8
- Opportunities
- 58
RB · xFP Leader
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET · RB
- TacoBot xFP
- 32.9
- Actual FP
- 37.7
- Opportunities
- 31
WR · xFP Leader
Puka Nacua
LA · WR
- TacoBot xFP
- 43.4
- Actual FP
- 37.7
- Opportunities
- 26
TE · xFP Leader
Isaiah Likely
NYG · TE
- TacoBot xFP
- 23.1
- Actual FP
- 32.4
- Opportunities
- 13
Both xFP and Actual FP use TacoBot's PPR scoring on modeled carries, targets and pass attempts. Turnover deductions, return scoring and other unmodeled plays are outside this comparison, so Actual FP can differ from a league's full fantasy score. A dash means the stat is unavailable.
How this ranking works
How to read TacoBot xFP
- TacoBot xFP estimates the historical value of modeled carries, targets and pass attempts using field position, down, distance and game situation. Targets and pass attempts can also use air yards and end-zone location.
- Points Left = TacoBot xFP − Actual FP. Positive values mean scoring fell below opportunity value; negative values mean scoring exceeded it.
- xFP values the opportunities that actually occurred. It is not a pregame forecast, and play outcomes and win probability do not set the expected value.
- Actual FP uses the same modeled opportunities and TacoBot PPR scoring. Turnover deductions, returns and unmodeled plays are outside this comparison, so league totals may differ.
- A scoring gap describes this week. It does not establish the cause of the gap or guarantee a rebound or regression.
Data as of October 13, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.
View TacoBot xFP rankings