TacoBot xFP weekly
TacoBot xFP: Week 4
Davante Adams left the biggest gap between opportunity and scoring in Week 4. Tetairoa McMillan beat his opportunity value by the most.
Week 4 Recap
Davante Adams scored 7.2 FP from opportunities worth 17.4 TacoBot xFP, leaving 10.2 points on the field. That value came from 9 modeled opportunities.
Tetairoa McMillan went above his opportunity value: 45.2 actual FP against 27.0 xFP, a 18.2-point surplus. His 16 opportunities put the result in context. The gap describes this week's scoring; it does not guarantee what happens next.
Scoring Above & Below xFP
The five biggest surpluses and five biggest shortfalls in Week 4, together on one graph. Difference = Actual FP − TacoBot xFP.
Hover, tap or focus a player's bar to see Actual FP and xFP.
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR
- Actual FP
- 45.2
- TacoBot xFP
- 27.0
- Difference
- +18.2
Brian RobinsonATL · RB
- Actual FP
- 25.7
- TacoBot xFP
- 11.1
- Difference
- +14.6
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB
- Actual FP
- 30.9
- TacoBot xFP
- 17.1
- Difference
- +13.8
Nico CollinsHOU · WR
- Actual FP
- 30.8
- TacoBot xFP
- 17.2
- Difference
- +13.6
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
- Actual FP
- 27.7
- TacoBot xFP
- 16.3
- Difference
- +11.4
Tyson BagentCHI · QB
- Actual FP
- 11.1
- TacoBot xFP
- 19.6
- Difference
- −8.4
Antonio WilliamsWAS · WR
- Actual FP
- 5.1
- TacoBot xFP
- 13.7
- Difference
- −8.6
Michael WilsonARI · WR
- Actual FP
- 16.5
- TacoBot xFP
- 25.6
- Difference
- −9.1
Trey McBrideARI · TE
- Actual FP
- 10.1
- TacoBot xFP
- 19.7
- Difference
- −9.6
Davante AdamsLA · WR
- Actual FP
- 7.2
- TacoBot xFP
- 17.4
- Difference
- −10.2
Follow the Opportunities
The Most Valuable Workloads
The highest total TacoBot xFP at each position on this week's published board. Opportunity value reflects volume and situation, whether or not the final score matched it.
QB · xFP Leader
Joe Burrow
CIN · QB
- TacoBot xFP
- 27.4
- Actual FP
- 27.7
- Opportunities
- 57
RB · xFP Leader
Kyren Williams
LA · RB
- TacoBot xFP
- 31.4
- Actual FP
- 36.7
- Opportunities
- 29
WR · xFP Leader
CeeDee Lamb
DAL · WR
- TacoBot xFP
- 35.6
- Actual FP
- 41.3
- Opportunities
- 22
TE · xFP Leader
Sam LaPorta
DET · TE
- TacoBot xFP
- 23.8
- Actual FP
- 22.4
- Opportunities
- 13
Both xFP and Actual FP use TacoBot's PPR scoring on modeled carries, targets and pass attempts. Turnover deductions, return scoring and other unmodeled plays are outside this comparison, so Actual FP can differ from a league's full fantasy score. A dash means the stat is unavailable.
How this ranking works
How to read TacoBot xFP
- TacoBot xFP estimates the historical value of modeled carries, targets and pass attempts using field position, down, distance and game situation. Targets and pass attempts can also use air yards and end-zone location.
- Points Left = TacoBot xFP − Actual FP. Positive values mean scoring fell below opportunity value; negative values mean scoring exceeded it.
- xFP values the opportunities that actually occurred. It is not a pregame forecast, and play outcomes and win probability do not set the expected value.
- Actual FP uses the same modeled opportunities and TacoBot PPR scoring. Turnover deductions, returns and unmodeled plays are outside this comparison, so league totals may differ.
- A scoring gap describes this week. It does not establish the cause of the gap or guarantee a rebound or regression.
Data as of October 6, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.
View TacoBot xFP rankings