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TACOBOT PROJECTIONS

Week 6 Starters: RB

These 5 Players are projected by TacoBot to be top 5 in their position this week.

These rankings come from TacoBot's weekly projections. Floor and ceiling are P10 and P90 (see distributions).

Top 5 RB starters

  1. #1 RB

    Bijan Robinson

    ATL • vs CHI

    17.4Mean Fantasy Points

    Highest meanHighest ceilingHighest floorMost volatileHighest top-5 probability
    Mean Fantasy Points
    17.4
    80% Range
    7.1–29.3
    Floor
    7.1
    Ceiling
    29.3
    Volatility
    8.8
    Expected Carries
    16.5
    Expected Targets
    3.9
    Top-5 Probability
    45%
    Top-12 Probability
    67%

    TacoBot expects 3.9 targets and gives him a 45% chance of a top-five RB finish.

    -161 fantasy points
    ● P10: 7.1● Median: 16.1● Mean Fantasy Points: 17.4● P90: 29.3
  2. #2 RB

    Christian McCaffrey

    SF • vs WAS

    16.2Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    16.2
    80% Range
    6.1–27.9
    Floor
    6.1
    Ceiling
    27.9
    Volatility
    8.6
    Expected Carries
    13.4
    Expected Targets
    3.6
    Top-5 Probability
    40%
    Top-12 Probability
    61%

    TacoBot expects 3.6 targets and gives him a 40% chance of a top-five RB finish.

    -267 fantasy points
    ● P10: 6.1● Median: 14.9● Mean Fantasy Points: 16.2● P90: 27.9
  3. #3 RB

    Derrick Henry

    BAL • vs CLE

    13.5Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    13.5
    80% Range
    5.1–23.5
    Floor
    5.1
    Ceiling
    23.5
    Volatility
    7.4
    Expected Carries
    18.6
    Expected Targets
    1.4
    Top-5 Probability
    27%
    Top-12 Probability
    48%

    TacoBot expects 1.4 targets and gives him a 27% chance of a top-five RB finish.

    -154 fantasy points
    ● P10: 5.1● Median: 12.2● Mean Fantasy Points: 13.5● P90: 23.5
  4. #4 RB

    Jonathan Taylor

    IND • vs TEN

    13.3Mean Fantasy Points

    Mean Fantasy Points
    13.3
    80% Range
    4.9–23.4
    Floor
    4.9
    Ceiling
    23.4
    Volatility
    7.5
    Expected Carries
    14.6
    Expected Targets
    2.5
    Top-5 Probability
    26%
    Top-12 Probability
    47%

    TacoBot expects 2.5 targets and gives him a 26% chance of a top-five RB finish.

    -460 fantasy points
    ● P10: 4.9● Median: 12.1● Mean Fantasy Points: 13.3● P90: 23.4
  5. #5 RB

    Kyren Williams

    LA • vs ARI

    12.6Mean Fantasy Points

    Most stable
    Mean Fantasy Points
    12.6
    80% Range
    4.5–22.4
    Floor
    4.5
    Ceiling
    22.4
    Volatility
    7.2
    Expected Carries
    12.1
    Expected Targets
    3.2
    Top-5 Probability
    23%
    Top-12 Probability
    44%

    TacoBot expects 3.2 targets and gives him a 23% chance of a top-five RB finish.

    -362 fantasy points
    ● P10: 4.5● Median: 11.5● Mean Fantasy Points: 12.6● P90: 22.4

forecast: 10/13/2026 · model: connected-plays-v3-qb-situational · run: 20261013T124554208883-c6d044aa4f39

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