Season tracker

Most Predictable Offenses

Rank offenses becoming easier or harder to understand.

2026 leaderboard

Latest verified results through Week 5.

Latest Most Predictable Offenses rankings
Rank	Team	Predictability	Share stability (%)	Share concentration (%)	Mean share change (%)	Previous rank	Weekly movement
1	ATL	62.88	79.57	23.95	20.4%	5	+4
2	BAL	62.27	78.88	23.53	21.1%	9	+7
3	CLE	62.22	80.44	19.72	19.6%	2	-1
4	DET	60.50	75.13	26.38	24.9%	1	-3
5	MIN	59.62	73.33	27.63	26.7%	15	+10
6	TB	59.24	76.72	18.45	23.3%	3	-3
7	PIT	58.93	75.27	20.80	24.7%	10	+3
8	JAX	58.78	75.89	18.86	24.1%	13	+5
9	IND	58.07	73.52	22.01	26.5%	6	-3
10	SF	57.64	74.37	18.60	25.6%	14	+4
11	LA	56.98	72.52	20.73	27.5%	20	+9
12	ARI	56.96	73.90	17.43	26.1%	7	-5
13	NO	56.72	74.51	15.21	25.5%	24	+11
14	LV	56.67	71.52	22.03	28.5%	8	-6
15	DAL	55.96	71.83	18.93	28.2%	4	-11
16	TEN	55.87	71.58	19.20	28.4%	16	0
17	SEA	55.15	69.34	22.03	30.7%	27	+10
18	NYG	54.93	70.09	19.54	29.9%	19	+1
19	HOU	53.64	70.11	15.21	29.9%	25	+6
20	CHI	53.48	68.35	18.78	31.6%	11	-9
21	GB	53.20	69.86	14.33	30.1%	22	+1
22	BUF	53.10	66.28	22.34	33.7%	18	-4
23	LAC	53.08	68.35	17.46	31.6%	23	0
24	NE	52.76	68.89	15.11	31.1%	29	+5
25	CIN	51.31	64.35	20.88	35.6%	21	-4
26	NYJ	50.96	61.94	25.34	38.1%	26	0
27	DEN	50.85	65.25	17.24	34.8%	31	+4
28	MIA	50.38	63.20	20.46	36.8%	30	+2
29	WAS	43.81	56.50	14.18	43.5%	28	-1
30	PHI	39.31	48.74	17.30	51.3%	32	+2

Four observed weeks of player opportunity shares are compared by total-variation distance and share concentration.
The score weights stability 70% and concentration 30%.
each week needs at least 20 identified opportunities.

Data as of October 13, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.