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Most Predictable Offenses weekly

Most Predictable Offenses: Week 4

DET leads the Week 4 edition.

October 6, 2026Final recap · Week 4

What changed from the prior period

DET moved into the No. 1 spot.

DET, CLE, TB, DAL, ATL, IND, ARI, LV, BAL, PIT are new to the top 10.

The Week 4 Board

This edition captures the leading signals from the weekly results. The live ranking table continues to update; this article keeps the week's results in view.

#1

DET

63.77

New this week · Predictability

Share stability (%): 79.95 · Share concentration (%): 26.03 · Mean share change (%): 20.1%

  • Jahmyr Gibbs: 0 opportunities, 33.9% of team
  • Sam LaPorta: 0 opportunities, 20.0% of team
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 0 opportunities, 15.4% of team

#2

CLE

63.03

New this week · Predictability

Share stability (%): 81.55 · Share concentration (%): 19.82 · Mean share change (%): 18.4%

  • Quinshon Judkins: 0 opportunities, 41.4% of team
  • KC Concepcion: 0 opportunities, 13.8% of team
  • Denzel Boston: 0 opportunities, 12.1% of team

#3

TB

62.63

New this week · Predictability

Share stability (%): 81.96 · Share concentration (%): 17.53 · Mean share change (%): 18.0%

  • Bucky Irving: 0 opportunities, 28.6% of team
  • Jalon Daniels: 0 opportunities, 12.5% of team
  • Chris Godwin Jr.: 0 opportunities, 12.5% of team

#4

DAL

62.23

New this week · Predictability

Share stability (%): 80.50 · Share concentration (%): 19.60 · Mean share change (%): 19.5%

  • Javonte Williams: 0 opportunities, 35.3% of team
  • CeeDee Lamb: 0 opportunities, 32.4% of team
  • Ryan Flournoy: 0 opportunities, 7.3% of team

#5

ATL

61.70

New this week · Predictability

Share stability (%): 75.72 · Share concentration (%): 28.99 · Mean share change (%): 24.3%

  • Bijan Robinson: 0 opportunities, 39.6% of team
  • Brian Robinson: 0 opportunities, 28.3% of team
  • Drake London: 0 opportunities, 11.3% of team

#6

IND

61.45

New this week · Predictability

Share stability (%): 77.12 · Share concentration (%): 24.87 · Mean share change (%): 22.9%

  • Jonathan Taylor: 0 opportunities, 42.1% of team
  • Seth McGowan: 0 opportunities, 14.0% of team
  • Laquon Treadwell: 0 opportunities, 10.5% of team

How this ranking works

How to read Most Predictable Offenses

  • Four observed weeks of player opportunity shares are compared by total-variation distance and share concentration.
  • The score weights stability 70% and concentration 30%.
  • each week needs at least 20 identified opportunities.

Data as of October 6, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.

View Most Predictable Offenses rankings