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Most Predictable Offenses: Week 5

ATL leads the Week 5 edition.

October 13, 2026Final recap · Week 5

What changed from the prior period

ATL moved into the No. 1 spot.

MIN, JAX, SF are new to the top 10.

SEA recorded the largest raw-value increase (5.90).

DAL recorded the largest raw-value decrease (-6.27).

The Week 5 Board

This edition captures the leading signals from the weekly results. The live ranking table continues to update; this article keeps the week's results in view.

#1

ATL

62.88

Up 4 · Predictability

Share stability (%): 79.57 · Share concentration (%): 23.95 · Mean share change (%): 20.4%

  • Bijan Robinson: 0 opportunities, 40.0% of team
  • Drake London: 0 opportunities, 18.3% of team
  • Brian Robinson: 0 opportunities, 13.3% of team

#2

BAL

62.27

Up 7 · Predictability

Share stability (%): 78.88 · Share concentration (%): 23.53 · Mean share change (%): 21.1%

  • Derrick Henry: 0 opportunities, 40.3% of team
  • Zay Flowers: 0 opportunities, 14.9% of team
  • Justice Hill: 0 opportunities, 11.9% of team

#3

CLE

62.22

Down 1 · Predictability

Share stability (%): 80.44 · Share concentration (%): 19.72 · Mean share change (%): 19.6%

  • Quinshon Judkins: 0 opportunities, 32.7% of team
  • Denzel Boston: 0 opportunities, 12.7% of team
  • Isaiah Bond: 0 opportunities, 12.7% of team

#4

DET

60.50

Down 3 · Predictability

Share stability (%): 75.13 · Share concentration (%): 26.38 · Mean share change (%): 24.9%

  • Jahmyr Gibbs: 0 opportunities, 50.8% of team
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 0 opportunities, 18.0% of team
  • Sione Vaki: 0 opportunities, 9.8% of team

#5

MIN

59.62

Up 10 · Predictability

Share stability (%): 73.33 · Share concentration (%): 27.63 · Mean share change (%): 26.7%

  • Aaron Jones: 0 opportunities, 45.2% of team
  • Justin Jefferson: 0 opportunities, 12.9% of team
  • Kyler Murray: 0 opportunities, 11.3% of team

#6

TB

59.24

Down 3 · Predictability

Share stability (%): 76.72 · Share concentration (%): 18.45 · Mean share change (%): 23.3%

  • Bucky Irving: 0 opportunities, 38.7% of team
  • Emeka Egbuka: 0 opportunities, 16.1% of team
  • Kenny Gainwell: 0 opportunities, 12.9% of team

How this ranking works

How to read Most Predictable Offenses

  • Four observed weeks of player opportunity shares are compared by total-variation distance and share concentration.
  • The score weights stability 70% and concentration 30%.
  • each week needs at least 20 identified opportunities.

Data as of October 13, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.

View Most Predictable Offenses rankings