Fourth-Down Aggressiveness Rankings weekly
Fourth-Down Aggressiveness Rankings: Week 4
NO leads the Week 4 edition.
What changed from the prior period
NO moved into the No. 1 spot.
CIN, CAR, TB, LAC, WAS, KC, LV are new to the top 10.
CIN recorded the largest raw-value increase (24.47).
MIA recorded the largest raw-value decrease (-46.49).
The Week 4 Board
This edition captures the leading signals from the weekly results. The live ranking table continues to update; this article keeps the week's results in view.
#1
NO
29.82
Up 9 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 9 · Go attempts: 4 · Expected go attempts: 1.32
#2
CIN
27.50
Up 17 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 5 · Go attempts: 2 · Expected go attempts: 0.62
#3
PHI
18.71
No change · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 12 · Go attempts: 4 · Expected go attempts: 1.75
#4
CAR
16.92
Up 8 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 7 · Go attempts: 2 · Expected go attempts: 0.82
#5
TB
16.46
Up 12 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 7 · Go attempts: 3 · Expected go attempts: 1.85
#6
DET
14.69
No change · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 7 · Go attempts: 2 · Expected go attempts: 0.97
How this ranking works
How to read Fourth-Down Aggressiveness Rankings
- Known go, punt and field-goal decisions are compared with prior-only league frequencies in distance, field-position, score and clock buckets, shrunk toward the overall prior rate.
- This is a decision-frequency comparison, not an expected-value model.
Data as of October 6, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.
View Fourth-Down Aggressiveness Rankings rankings