Fourth-Down Aggressiveness Rankings weekly
Fourth-Down Aggressiveness Rankings: Week 3
MIA leads the Week 3 edition.
What changed from the prior period
MIA moved into the No. 1 spot.
MIA, BUF, BAL, GB, DAL, CLE are new to the top 10.
MIA recorded the largest raw-value increase (41.77).
SEA recorded the largest raw-value decrease (-29.44).
The Week 3 Board
This edition captures the leading signals from the weekly results. The live ranking table continues to update; this article keeps the week's results in view.
#1
MIA
38.53
Up 17 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 6 · Go attempts: 3 · Expected go attempts: 0.69
#2
BUF
32.01
New this week · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 4 · Go attempts: 2 · Expected go attempts: 0.72
#3
PHI
22.91
Up 2 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 6 · Go attempts: 2 · Expected go attempts: 0.63
#4
CHI
21.95
Down 1 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 7 · Go attempts: 3 · Expected go attempts: 1.46
#5
BAL
18.17
Up 21 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 6 · Go attempts: 2 · Expected go attempts: 0.91
#6
DET
18.11
Down 4 · Go rate above baseline (pp)
Fourth-down decisions: 5 · Go attempts: 2 · Expected go attempts: 1.09
How this ranking works
How to read Fourth-Down Aggressiveness Rankings
- Known go, punt and field-goal decisions are compared with prior-only league frequencies in distance, field-position, score and clock buckets, shrunk toward the overall prior rate.
- This is a decision-frequency comparison, not an expected-value model.
Data as of September 29, 2026. Source: nflverse play-by-play.
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